Growing tensions between the Russian army and Wagner’s military: Could this be Putin’s strategy?

In a recent high-profile video, PMC Wagner group leader Prigozhyn revealed a series of repeated attacks by the Russian army on his own positions in Ukraine. An inconsistent situation, to say the least, given that these two entities are supposed to be fighting the same enemy. Prigozhyn accused the Russian military chief of incompetence and lack of a combat plan in Ukraine. Faced with these attacks, the Wagner group decided to turn against the Russian army, taking the Rostov military base hostage and heading for Moscow.

The international media, especially in the West, reacted sharply to this escalation of tensions, with some even suggesting the end of Putin’s reign. However, the Russian president reacted swiftly, calling these actions national treason and asking Wagner’s military to surrender. In a surprising turn of events, the President of Belarus offered Wagner asylum in less than 24 hours, casting doubt on the true motives of this mercenary group. Since the start of the war, there have already been 30,000 military personnel present on Belarusian territory, in addition to the 25,000 who left just recently.

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Non-compliance with an agreement signed between Ukraine and Russia

It is important to remember that Vladimir Putin presented a document signed by Ukraine in Turkey at the start of the conflict last year. The document, entitled “Treaty on the Permanent Guarantee of Security Neutrality for Ukraine”, provides for Ukraine’s permanent neutrality to be enshrined in its constitution, with Russia, the USA, Great Britain, China and France as guarantors.

Putin had accused Ukraine of sabotaging the negotiations after withdrawing Kiev’s troops as promised. He expressed his disappointment at the Ukrainian authorities’ rejection of the treaty. Many wondered why Putin was withdrawing his troops from Ukraine when he already had the upper hand? Well, it’s by virtue of signing this agreement, which Ukraine has not respected.

Indeed, shortly after the document was signed, Boris Johnson, Nancy Pelosi, Anthony Blinken and Ursula von der Leyen left for their respective visits to Ukraine. Their presence seems to have influenced Ukraine’s decision to break off negotiations and continue the conflict.

What’s really going on?

This situation raises many questions and speculations. Why would the Russian army attack its own allies? Why would Wagner abandon his march to Moscow to take refuge in Belarus? Some analysts suggest that there may be underlying political motivations, staging a complex game where different players seek to weaken Putin and take control of power. Others think it’s Putin’s strategy to attack Kiev, as the country is closer to Belarus. Vladimir Putin was a KGB agent before becoming president. He is therefore an excellent Chess Player.

It’s also interesting to note that, despite the importance of these events, the West seems to be watching from afar without taking any concrete action. Why not support Wagner in his alleged fight against Putin if the Russian army is really in disarray? Why not provide weapons and resources to help Wagner overthrow Putin? It’s obvious that the West itself doesn’t understand what’s going on.

These questions remain unanswered, and it’s essential to remain critical and bear in mind that this interpretation of events is just one hypothesis among many. The situation in Russia continues to unfold, and it is crucial to keep a close eye on future developments to better understand the complex issues at stake in this crisis.

Totally inspired by Zack Mwekassa’s video